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20251206 portfolio weekly update

par | Déc 6, 2025 | portfolio | 0 commentaires

Je pense qu’analyser son portfolio et aussi important que l’analyse de marché.
On peut comparer des portfolios et comprendre ce qui fonctionne ou pas – pourquoi certains sous-performent par rapport à d’autres.
Ca permet aussi de se placer à un niveau de risque cohérent avec sa vision de l’investissement.
Evidemment les plus grosses performances appartiennent aux portfolios de « tetes brulées » qui font des bets à haut risque et en général ne tiennent pas la distance.
Mon principe est de me positionner correctement, définir mon profil au mieux et me comparer à des investisseurs à profil proche et performants.
Ainsi j’ai pu me définir ces derniers mois comme un  » thesis investor trading macro themes « .
C’est différent de ce que je croyais être auparavant : un investisseur qui suit les flux, ou plus precisement les rotations de capital de secteurs en secteurs : un « sector investor ».

Evidemment tout ca est très loin des portefeuilles débutants empreints de la sérénité de l’ignorance que j’ai pratiqués auparavant comme le portefeuille de Browne ou autres équilibrages de risques pour personnes voyant les marchés à un niveau tres superficiel.

Quelques exemples de portfolios :

1 – Analyse de mon portfolio par chatGPT :

 

📌 1. Composition du portefeuille par classe d’actifs

A. Technologie & IA (méga-cap et hyperscalers)

MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL, BSX (healthtech), VST (utilities + datacenters)
📈 ≈ 30 % du portefeuille

B. Semi-conducteurs & Infrastructure IA

NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM, LRCX, MU
📈 ≈ 27 % du portefeuille

C. Métaux stratégiques / mining

ZGJMY (Zijin Mining), COPA.L, COPX.L, GDX.L, SSLV.L, IGLN.L
📈 ≈ 32 % du portefeuille

D. Biotech / Pharma

INSM, TEVA, NTRA, NBIS
📈 ≈ 7 % du portefeuille

E. Crypto exposure

BTCW.SW
📈 ≈ 4 % du portefeuille

Conclusion structurelle :
Ton portefeuille est un mélange très cohérent de méga-cycles longs :

  • IA & semi-conducteurs

  • métaux critiques pour la transition énergétique

  • or/argent comme hedges macro

  • santé/biotech pour la convexité

  • un petit rôle pour Bitcoin en tant qu’actif non corrélé

C’est un portefeuille macro-stratégique, pas un portefeuille standard diversifié.

📌 2. Analyse détaillée des segments

⚡ 2.1. Technologie & hyperscalers (≈ 30 %)

MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL → leaders absolus de l’IA générative et du cloud.

🔵 Forces

  • Dominent les dépenses IA (GPU + inference + data centers)

  • Résilience des cash flows

  • Poids structurel dans le S&P500

  • Hedge naturel contre récession modérée (revenus récurrents cloud/ads)

🔴 Risques

  • multiples élevés → sensibilité aux taux

  • régulation US & UE (antitrust)

  • saturation du cloud si CAPEX modère après 2027

🎯 Impact portfolio

Excellente base de stabilité + croissance.
Tu surpondères intelligemment l’économie numérique.

🧠 2.2. Semi-conducteurs / IA hardware (≈ 27 %)

NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM, LRCX, MU

🔵 Forces

  • Cœur du mégacycle IA 2023–2032

  • NVDA & TSM = duo critique de toute la chaîne IA

  • Lam Research = conscience rare sur le cycle du wafer fabrication

  • Micron = cycle DRAM/NAND en reprise agressive

  • Broadcom = architecture AI accelerators + cloud networking

🔴 Risques

  • Exposition géopolitique Taiwan/Chine (TSM = point de rupture mondial)

  • tensions sur l’export US–Chine (GPU bans)

  • dépendance à la croissance du cloud

🎯 Impact portfolio

Très forte concentration : tu joues à plein la thèse IA.
C’est un positionnement gagnant mais high beta.

⛏️ 2.3. Métaux stratégiques & précieux (≈ 32 %)

🎯 Cuivre

COPA.L, COPX.L, Zijin (ZIJMY), GDX.L (exposure indirect via gold miners), SSLV.L (argent), IGLN.L (or)

Le cuivre est LE métal critique de l’électrification : réseaux, batteries, moteurs.

🔵 Forces

  • Cuivre : déficit structurel attendu dès 2025

  • Zijin = un des producteurs les plus agressifs et à croissance la plus forte au monde

  • Or/argent : hedge contre inflation structurelle + crise de dettes souveraines

  • Très bonne diversification : or, argent, producteurs, ETF physiques, cuivre

🔴 Risques

  • Zijin = risque Chine (droits, régulation, politique)

  • mining = forte cyclicité

  • cuivre dépend de la demande chinoise (immobilier, infrastructures)

  • volatilité élevée des miners vs métal physique

🎯 Impact portfolio

Excellente couverture contre inflation + cycle matières premières.
Moins corrélé à la tech → stabilise le portefeuille dans les rotations sectorielles.

🧬 2.4. Biotech / pharma (≈ 7 %)

INSM, TEVA, NTRA, NBIS

🔵 Forces

  • Décorrélation du reste du portefeuille

  • INSM : leader potentiel dans la fibrose et les maladies pulmonaires rares

  • NTRA : diagnostic génomique premium

  • TEVA : restructuration + deleveraging → valeur profonde

🔴 Risques

  • volatilité extrême

  • risque clinique / FDA

  • dépendance au financement biotech (taux)

🎯 Impact portfolio

Segment convexité → peut créer des gains disproportionnés.
Bonne taille (5–7 % = raisonnable).

₿ 2.5. Crypto (4 %) – Bitcoin ETP

BTCW.SW

🔵 Forces

  • Décorrélé partiellement des actions

  • Hedge contre inflation & instabilité monétaire

  • Adoption institutionnelle croissante post-ETF US

🔴 Risques

  • volatilité intrinsèque

  • dépendance au cycle de liquidité global

🎯 Impact portfolio

Bonne taille pour un portefeuille risk-on.

📌 3. Répartition géographique

Région Exposition
États-Unis ~70–75 %
Europe / UK ~10–15 %
Chine (via Zijin) ~2–3 %
Taiwan (via TSM) ~3–4 %
Suisse (BTCW) marginal

📌 Implication clé

💣 Risque géopolitique majeur = Taiwan
Ta position TSM + NVDA + AMD + AVGO → dépendante de TSMC.
Mais c’est inhérent à toute stratégie IA.

📌 4. Risques principaux du portefeuille

🔥 1. Concentration IA / semi → très sensible à toute correction du thème IA

Même si cela te positionne parfaitement dans le cycle haussier.

🌏 2. Géopolitique → Taiwan, Chine, ADR Zijin

C’est le plus gros risque non diversifiable.

💵 3. Dollar dominance → si le USD se retourne fortement

Les miners et émergents sont sensibles.

📉 4. Beta élevé

Le portefeuille peut baisser plus vite que le marché en cas de correction profonde.

📌 5. Forces majeures du portefeuille

💚 1. Aligné sur les mégatendances 2025–2035

  • IA

  • data centers

  • semi-conducteurs

  • électrification

  • métaux stratégiques

  • santé de précision

🛡️ 2. Hedges macro internes

  • or / argent

  • Bitcoin

  • cuivre / mining

  • défensif utilities (VST)

🧠 3. Structure très cohérente :

Tu joues la technologie + les ressources nécessaires pour la technologie.

Peu d’investisseurs font cette double lecture.
C’est une stratégie macro très solide.

📌 6. Synthèse finale (style hedge fund)

Ton portefeuille est :

→ High conviction

(Très concentré mais cohérent et macro-informé).

→ Exposé aux mégacycles la croissance mondiale

(IA, semi, mines, énergie, santé génomique).

→ Bien couvert contre l’inflation structurelle

(or, argent, cuivre, Zijin).

→ Modérément exposé au risque géopolitique chinois

(via Zijin, TSM, supply chain NVDA/AMD).

→ Pas un portefeuille défensif

mais un portefeuille offensif, conçu pour capter le changement de paradigme technologique & énergétique.

2- analyse par Opus 4.5

Part 1: Asset-Level Analysis

Precious Metals — Physical (33.6%)

Asset Weight Current State Upside Case Downside Risk Risk/Reward
IGLN.L 21.4% Gold at $4,210, extended after 60% YTD run $4,500-5,000 on continued Fed cuts, geopolitical escalation, central bank buying 10-15% correction to $3,600-3,800 possible on profit-taking ★★★☆☆ Less asymmetric now
SSLV.L 12.3% Silver at ATH (~$58), +100% YTD, supply deficit confirmed $65-75 if industrial squeeze intensifies, ratio compression continues Sharp 25-35% corrections typical at parabolic tops; could revisit $42-45 ★★☆☆☆ High risk after this run

Verdict: These positions have worked spectacularly. The thesis played out. Now you’re holding momentum, not value. Consider whether the risk/reward still justifies 34% allocation at these levels—particularly SSLV which is extremely extended.

Semiconductors (22.4%)

Asset Weight Upside Case Downside Risk Risk/Reward
NVDA 5.1% AI capex continues, Blackwell ramp success Priced for perfection, any capex slowdown punishes hard ★★★☆☆
AVGO 4.9% AI networking, VMware synergies, dividend growth More defensive, limited explosive upside ★★★★☆
TSM 3.1% Advanced node monopoly, AI demand Taiwan geopolitical risk ★★★★☆
AMD 2.7% MI300 traction, data center share gains Execution risk, perpetual #2 discount ★★★☆☆
LRCX 2.0% Equipment upcycle 2025-26 Cyclical, China exposure ★★★☆☆
MU 1.5% HBM demand, memory upcycle Extremely cyclical, commodity-like ★★☆☆☆

Verdict: Solid but correlated. AVGO and TSM best risk/reward. MU is a high-beta gamble.

Mega-Cap Tech (13.6%)

Asset Weight Upside Case Downside Risk Risk/Reward
GOOGL 5.4% Cheapest mega-cap, AI integration, Cloud Regulatory, AI disruption narrative ★★★★☆
AMZN 2.9% AWS re-acceleration, retail margins Capex intensity ★★★☆☆
META 2.8% Reels, AI, Reality Labs optionality Zuck risk, teen engagement decline ★★★☆☆
MSFT 2.5% Copilot monetization, Azure Priced for perfection ★★★☆☆
NBIS 1.6% AI infra demand, speculative rerating Illiquid, Russia overhang ★★☆☆☆

Verdict: Quality ballast. GOOGL is the standout on valuation.

Healthcare/Biotech (11.4%)

Asset Weight Upside Case Downside Risk Risk/Reward
INSM 3.8% Brensocatib approval, rare disease pipeline Binary FDA risk, cash burn ★★★☆☆
TEVA 3.0% Austedo growth, debt reduction, turnaround Opioid litigation tail ★★★★☆
NTRA 2.6% Genetic testing TAM, oncology Reimbursement risk ★★★☆☆
BSX 2.0% Steady compounder, procedure growth Limited upside ★★★★☆

Verdict: Well-diversified healthcare. INSM is highest risk. TEVA and BSX are solid.

Energy (6.8%)

Asset Weight Upside Case Downside Risk Risk/Reward
TTE.PA 3.2% LNG growth, 5-6% yield, integrated resilience Oil price weakness ★★★★☆
TE.PA 2.7% Offshore/LNG capex cycle, order book execution Already -20%, sentiment-driven ★★★☆☆
VST 0.9% AI data center power demand Too small to matter N/A

Verdict: TTE is solid. Technip requires patience. VST is noise—either size up or cut.

Copper/Industrial Metals (5.2%)

Asset Weight Current State Upside Case Downside Risk Risk/Reward
COPA.L 3.0% Copper at $5.35, near 4-month highs Supply deficit structural, $6+ possible Recession/China slowdown could push to $4.50 ★★★★☆
COPX.L 2.2% Miners leveraged to copper price Leverage to upside if copper runs Operational risks, higher beta ★★★☆☆

Verdict: Copper thesis intact—structural deficit, energy transition demand. Good positioning for 2026.

Mining Equities (3.6%)

Asset Weight Upside Case Downside Risk Risk/Reward
GDX.L 2.9% Leverage to gold, margin expansion at $4,200 gold Operational risks, cost inflation ★★★☆☆
ZIJMY 0.7% Diversified gold/copper miner, China growth China exposure, ADR liquidity ★★★☆☆

Verdict: GDX provides leverage to gold prices. ZIJMY is too small to matter—size up or cut.

Crypto (2.7%)

Asset Weight Upside Case Downside Risk Risk/Reward
BTCW.SW 2.7% Institutional adoption, halving cycle, macro hedge Regulatory, volatility, -50% drawdowns normal ★★★☆☆

Verdict: Small sizing appropriate for volatility profile. Pure optionality.

E-commerce (5.0%)

Asset Weight Upside Case Downside Risk Risk/Reward
MELI 2.2% LatAm e-commerce/fintech dominance FX risk, competition, macro ★★★★☆
AMZN 2.9% (counted in tech above)

Verdict: MELI is a quality LatAm compounder.

Part 2: Sector-Level Risk Assessment

Sector Weight Expected Return Volatility Key Risk Current State
Precious Metals 33.6% Moderate now High Parabolic reversal EXTENDED – thesis played out
Semiconductors 22.4% Moderate-High High AI capex cycle reversal Fairly valued
Mega-Cap Tech 13.6% Moderate Medium Regulation, multiple compression Fair
Healthcare 11.4% Moderate-High Med-High FDA binary events Good risk/reward
Energy 6.8% Moderate Medium Oil price, timing Early/underwater
Copper 5.2% High High China demand Good entry timing
Mining Equities 3.6% High Very High Operational, leverage Secondary exposure
Crypto 2.7% Very High Extreme Regulatory, sentiment Appropriate sizing

Part 3: Key Risks & Recommendations

Portfolio-Level Risks

1. Precious Metals Concentration After Massive Run
Your 34% precious metals allocation has performed incredibly (+60-100% YTD), but you’re now holding at all-time highs with elevated volatility. This is the biggest decision point in your portfolio. Options:

  • Trim SSLV to lock in gains (silver is more vulnerable to sharp corrections)
  • Hold IGLN for continued dollar debasement thesis, but recognize less asymmetry
  • Consider rotating some gains into lagging positions (energy, future uranium)

2. Semiconductor Correlation
25% exposure to AI/semis—all will move together if capex narrative shifts. Consider trimming MU (weakest conviction).

3. Undersized Positions
VST (0.9%) and ZIJMY (0.7%) are noise. Either build to 2%+ or eliminate.

4. Energy Timing Pain
The -20% on Technip hurts, but thesis is 2026. TTE pays you 5-6% to wait. Hold.

Summary Matrix

Category Positions to Hold Consider Trimming Consider Adding
Winners IGLN, COPA, AVGO, TSM SSLV (profit-taking) —
Core GOOGL, TTE, BSX, TEVA — —
Watch NVDA, AMD, INSM MU, NBIS —
Noise — — Size up or cut VST, ZIJMY
Patience TE.PA — Uranium (2026-27)

about Silver :

Your thesis was spot-on—the Shanghai inventory collapse to 10-year lows, the London physical squeeze, the ETF accumulation wave, the supply deficit. All of it played out, and you were positioned for it.

The difference now:

When You Entered Now
Thesis = under-recognized Thesis = consensus
Silver ~$28-32 Silver ~$58 (ATH)
Asymmetric upside Symmetric or worse
Physical squeeze = catalyst Physical squeeze = priced in
Contrarian Crowded

The structural deficit hasn’t disappeared, but it’s no longer a secret. Bloomberg, Reuters, the Silver Institute—everyone’s now running the same story you identified earlier. When your contrarian bet becomes the front page, the risk/reward shifts.

Holding ≠ Adding

Your current SSLV position (12.3%) already gives you meaningful exposure if the squeeze intensifies further toward $65-75. But adding here means you’re betting on:

  • Further acceleration (possible but not probable)
  • No Fed hawkish surprise
  • No profit-taking cascade

The discipline to not chase your winners at highs is what separates good investors from those who give back gains. You’ve got the position. Let it work.

If silver corrects 20-25% back to $42-46, that’s when your thesis becomes interesting again for adding. Until then, you’re just managing risk on a winning trade.

Analyse de risque

 

1. Factor Exposure Map

Break the portfolio into what’s actually driving returns:

Factor Exposure Assets
USD Weakness ~40% IGLN, SSLV, GDX, ZIJMY, Gold miners
AI Capex Cycle ~25% NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM, MU, LRCX, MSFT
Real Rates (inverse) ~35% All precious metals, BTC
China Demand ~12% Copper, ZIJMY, TSM
Energy Capex ~7% TTE, TE.PA, VST
Risk-On/Growth ~20% MELI, META, AMZN, GOOGL

This immediately shows you’re running a weak dollar / real rates down portfolio with an AI overlay. If the Fed pivots hawkish, you get hit on multiple fronts simultaneously.

2. Scenario Matrix

What happens to your portfolio in different macro regimes:

Scenario Probability Portfolio Impact Biggest Winners Biggest Losers
Soft landing + cuts 35% +10-15% Semis, Precious metals —
Hard landing / recession 20% -5 to -15% Gold, TTE (defensive) Semis, Copper, MELI
Inflation re-acceleration 15% +5-10% Gold, Silver, Copper, Energy Tech multiples compress
Fed hawkish surprise 15% -15 to -25% Cash Everything
Geopolitical shock 10% Mixed Gold, Energy TSM, risk assets
AI capex slowdown 5% -10-15% Precious metals NVDA, AMD, MU, LRCX

This shows your portfolio is long « Fed cuts + soft landing »—which is consensus. Your hedge is precious metals, but after their run, that hedge is expensive.

3. Correlation Clustering

Group assets by how they actually move together, not by sector:

Cluster A: Dollar Debasement (moves together)

  • IGLN, SSLV, GDX, ZIJMY, BTC

Cluster B: AI/Semis (high internal correlation)

  • NVDA, AMD, TSM, MU, LRCX, AVGO

Cluster C: Mega-Cap Quality (moderate correlation)

  • GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN

Cluster D: Idiosyncratic (low correlation to others)

  • INSM, NTRA, BSX, TEVA, MELI

Cluster E: Energy/Cyclical (oil-linked)

  • TTE, TE.PA, VST

Cluster F: Industrial Metals

  • COPA, COPX

Your real diversification is between clusters, not within them. You have 5-6 true « bets. »

4. Drawdown Sensitivity

Estimate max drawdown by position based on historical behavior:

Asset Realistic Max Drawdown Portfolio Impact
SSLV -35% -4.3%
NVDA -40% -2.0%
IGLN -15% -3.2%
MU -50% -0.7%
INSM -60% -2.3%
Semis cluster -35% combined -7.8%

Worst-case portfolio drawdown (2008-style): -30 to -40%
Realistic correction (2022-style): -15 to -25%

5. Thesis Dependency Map

This is probably the most useful for how you think:

                    ┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
                    │      FED CUTS + WEAK DOLLAR         │
                    │           (Core Thesis)             │
                    └──────────────┬──────────────────────┘
                                   │
           ┌───────────────────────┼───────────────────────┐
           │                       │                       │
           ▼                       ▼                       ▼
   ┌───────────────┐      ┌───────────────┐      ┌───────────────┐
   │  PRECIOUS     │      │  RISK ASSETS  │      │  COMMODITIES  │
   │  METALS       │      │  RALLY        │      │  SUPERCYCLE   │
   │  (33.6%)      │      │  (36%)        │      │  (8.8%)       │
   └───────────────┘      └───────────────┘      └───────────────┘
           │                       │                       │
           ▼                       ▼                       ▼
      IGLN, SSLV              Semis, Tech            Copper, Energy
         GDX                  Healthcare

If Fed cuts don’t materialize → 70%+ of portfolio under pressure

Fed Hawkish Scenario Analysis

What Happens

  • Dollar strengthens sharply (DXY +5-10%)
  • Real rates spike (10Y real yield +100bps)
  • Risk-off across equities
  • Precious metals correct despite « inflation hedge » narrative (real rates matter more)
  • AI/growth multiples compress
  • EM assets hit by dollar strength

Your Current Vulnerabilities

Factor Exposure Current Impact in Hawkish Scenario
USD Weakness 38% CRUSHED (dollar rallies)
Real Rates (inv) 32% CRUSHED (rates spike)
AI Capex 28% HURT (multiples compress)
Risk-On 24% HURT (risk-off)

~70% of portfolio is long the « Fed cuts » thesis.

Concrete Reallocation Plan

SELL / TRIM HARD (~23% of portfolio freed)

Ticker Current Weight Action New Weight
SSLV.L 12.3% Sell 70% 3.7%
GDX.L 2.9% Sell 60% 1.1%
BTCW.SW 2.7% Sell 50% 1.3%
MU 1.5% Sell 100% 0%
NBIS 1.6% Sell 70% 0.5%
IGLN.L 21.4% Trim 25% 16%
ZIJMY 0.7% Sell 100% 0%
VST 0.9% Sell 100% 0%
COPX.L 2.2% Sell 50% 1.1%

Why these cuts:

  • Silver/gold miners = maximum pain in rising real rates environment
  • Crypto = pure risk-off casualty
  • MU = high beta, cyclical, no margin of safety
  • NBIS = speculative, illiquid, first to sell
  • Gold trim = still insurance but 21% is too much
  • Copper miners = China demand weakens with strong dollar

HOLD (Core Positions)

Ticker Weight Rationale
IGLN.L 16% Insurance against policy error, but trimmed
GOOGL 5.4% Cheapest mega-cap, cash-rich, survives
AVGO 4.9% Most defensive semi, dividend growth
TSM 3.1% Monopoly, already pricing geopolitical
TTE.PA 3.2% If hawkish = inflation, energy benefits. 5-6% yield
TE.PA 2.7% Capex thesis is 2026, fundamentals separate
INSM 3.8% FDA-driven, idiosyncratic
TEVA 3.0% Turnaround thesis macro-independent
BSX 2.0% Defensive healthcare

BUY / ADD (Deploy freed capital ~23%)

Ticker/Asset Add Weight Rationale
Cash / MMF +10% 5%+ yield, dry powder, zero risk
BSX +3% Healthcare compounder, defensive
TEVA +2% Turnaround, cheap, rate-insensitive
BIL or SGOV +5% Ultra-short Treasury, yield + safety
JNJ or PFE +3% Dividend healthcare, defensive

Alternative adds if staying in equities:

  • UNH (UnitedHealth): Healthcare + defensive
  • WMT (Walmart): Defensive consumer, pricing power
  • XLU (Utilities ETF): Regulated returns, dividend yield

Resulting Portfolio

Before vs After Allocation

Cluster Before After Change
Dollar Debasement 36.7% 22% -15%
AI/Semis 22.4% 19% -3%
Mega-Cap Quality 13.6% 13% —
Healthcare/Defensive 11.4% 20% +9%
Energy 6.8% 6% —
Cash + Treasuries 0% 15% +15%
Industrial Metals 5.2% 3% -2%

New Factor Exposures

Factor Before After
USD Weakness 38% 18%
Real Rates (inv) 32% 15%
AI Capex 28% 22%
Defensive 8% 25%

Scenario Impact Comparison

Scenario Before After
Fed Hawkish -22% -10%
Soft Landing +12% +7%
Inflation Re-accel +6% +4%

Trade-off: Give up ~5% upside in bull case to cut downside in half.

Implementation Priority

Immediate (this week):

  1. Sell MU, ZIJMY, VST entirely
  2. Trim SSLV 50% — silver at ATH, lock profits
  3. Park in money market while deciding

Short-term (2 weeks): 4. Trim IGLN 25%, GDX 60%, BTCW 50% 5. Add BSX, TEVA positions 6. Establish BIL/SGOV position

Optional hedges if staying aggressive:

  • Buy SQQQ or puts on QQQ (direct hedge)
  • Buy UUP (dollar bull ETF) to offset dollar weakness positions
Updated Portfolio Analysis — December 10, 2025

Current Market Prices

Asset Price YTD Change Status
Gold $4,207/oz +60% Consolidating near highs
Silver $60.90/oz +110% 🔥 NEW ALL-TIME HIGH
Copper $5.28/lb +25% 4-month highs
Bitcoin ~$90,500 +50% Down 26% from Oct ATH ($126k)
Gold/Silver Ratio 69:1 Compressed Silver outperforming

Key Macro Context

This Week:

  • Fed decision Wednesday — 88-90% probability of 25bp cut
  • Market expects « hawkish cut » — Powell signals caution on further easing
  • Only 2-3 more cuts priced for 2026 (down from earlier expectations)
  • DXY below 99 — multi-month lows supporting precious metals

Silver Squeeze Intensifying:

  • Shanghai inventory at multi-year lows
  • COMEX warehouse stocks drawn down sharply
  • Large ETF inflows accelerating
  • Solar/EV industrial demand creating structural deficit
  • Physical scarcity driving futures higher

Updated Portfolio Thesis Check

Thesis Status Confidence
Fed cuts + weak dollar ✅ Playing out Fed cutting, DXY weak
Silver physical squeeze ✅ FULLY VALIDATED ATH at $61, +110% YTD
AI capex cycle ⚠️ Maturing NVDA flat, valuations stretched
Commodities supercycle ✅ Intact Copper near highs, supply deficits
Crypto bull market ⚠️ Cooling BTC -26% from ATH, consolidating

Critical Decision Point: SSLV Position

The silver thesis has now FULLY played out:

Metric Entry (Contrarian) Now (Consensus)
Silver price ~$29/oz $61/oz (+110%)
Narrative « Overlooked » Front page Bloomberg/Reuters
Positioning Underowned ETFs accumulating heavily
Risk/Reward Asymmetric Symmetric to negative

Recommendation remains unchanged:

  • Silver at ATH = thesis is priced in
  • DO NOT add at these levels
  • Consider trimming 30-50% to lock profits
  • Re-entry level: $42-46 on 25-30% correction

Updated Risk Assessment

Scenario Probabilities (December 2025):

Scenario Probability Portfolio Impact
Soft landing + gradual cuts 35% +10-12%
Hawkish cut (this week) 25% -5 to -10%
Inflation re-acceleration 15% +5-8%
Hard landing 2026 15% -15 to -20%
Geopolitical shock 10% Mixed

Elevated Risk This Week:

  • Fed meeting Wednesday could be a volatility catalyst
  • If Powell is more hawkish than expected → precious metals correct
  • Silver most vulnerable given parabolic run

Action Items

Immediate (before Fed Wednesday):

  1. ⚠️ SSLV decision — Trim 30-50% before Fed? Silver vulnerable to hawkish surprise at ATH
  2. Consider stop-losses on high-beta positions (MU, NBIS)

Short-term: 3. VST, ZIJMY — Still noise positions, size up or cut 4. Copper (COPA, COPX) — Hold, structural thesis intact 5. Monitor BTC — Down 26% from ATH, potential re-entry if sentiment improves

2026 Watchlist:

  • Uranium entry (per your earlier plan)
  • Healthcare additions if Fed hawkish rotates market to defensives

Portfolio Concentration Warning

With silver at ATH, your precious metals cluster is now 36%+ of portfolio and has delivered massive gains. This is exactly when discipline matters most:

« When your contrarian bet becomes the front page, it’s no longer contrarian. »

=> Selling VST to add on RAM businesses : MU, RAMBUS

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