SILVER — A GENERATIONAL BOTTOM
Je partage cet article :
Silver just cracked $93. Now the real game begins: timeframes.
Most of you got in roughly same time with me in the low $20s to early $30s and you’re already sitting on 3–4x gains. So the only question that matters now is:
What next?
When do you take profit?
Because this is where people blow it—not on the buy… on the hold.
Especially if you’ve been burned before by giving back gains.
And that’s why one thing matters more than any chart pattern:
Your time horizon.
When you bought silver, what were you actually trying to achieve?
Were you looking to make money over months to a year?
Over a couple of years?
Or were you positioning for long-term, multi-year, generational wealth?
If you’re in this short term, I believe you’re likely to see a top of the wave sometime between February and April. That aligns with seasonality and what I’m seeing on the charts. From there, I’d expect a healthy consolidation—not a crash like many are calling for but likely 6 to 18 months of sideways action. That kind of time-based correction is designed to capitulate people, not destroy price.
Now zoom out.
Most people are familiar with the Gold-to-Dow ratio. What I’ve shown you here is the Silver-to-Dow ratio. We’ve only been at these levels three times in history:
1930 – Great Depression – before the decade-long commodity run
1971 – right before the last major commodity supercycle
2000 – before the decade-long commodity run
Now – right before the next ……. I’ll let you fill in the blanks
And in every one of those periods, it wasn’t a one- or two-year move. It was over a decade-long cycle.
If you look at the silver chart itself—1930, 1971, 2000, and now—you can see that silver went on historic runs each time.
What’s even more important: the silver-to-dow ratio has only just turned up. Silver is still undervalued relative to equities and hasn’t even reached mean reversion yet.
This is the part many people don’t realise.
When I got you into silver, it wasn’t a short-term trade. It was a generational bottom. The start of a decade-long commodities boom, not a one- or two-year story.
That said, along the way there will be multi-year consolidations, and not everyone has the time—or temperament—to sit through those. And that’s okay.
Personally, I have both:
Short- and medium-term positions, where I’ll be taking profits over the next couple of months.
Physical silver, accumulated in the low 20s, SIL AND SILj, which I’m holding long term.
Because we are nowhere near the top. This is not the end of something—it’s the beginning of a major commodities cycle.
So it all comes back to one thing:
your time horizon.
And at the end of the day, everyone has a different goal, a different timeline, and a different level of wealth and risk tolerance—some people can afford to sit through long periods of sideways action, and others feel like they need to chase whatever the hottest thing is at the time.
Don’t follow someone else’s plan.
You need to follow your plan, because you’re not me. You’re not the other person you’re listening to.
You’re you—and you know what you’re trying to achieve.
That’s the real edge.
Gardons ca a l’esprit pour ceux qui veulent du levier sur le silver :
