ETF Flow Intelligence — 2026-02-19

Data: ETFdb Screener | 4,396 ETFs | 2,323 avec AUM > $100M | Signal Clarity Investing

Macro Overview — Aggregate Flows

Equity (4W)

+$91.2B

1,698 ETFs | 1W: +$23.4B

Bonds (4W)

+$34.0B

397 ETFs | 1W: +$10.7B

Commodities (4W)

+$4.5B

55 ETFs | 1W: +$346M

Currency/Crypto (4W)

-$3.8B

32 ETFs | BTC/ETH crash

Real Estate (4W)

-$394M

24 ETFs | YTD: -$960M

Regime: Risk-on massif sur equities (+$91B/4W) mais la rotation sous-jacente est brutale. Les flux quittent les mega-caps US (SPY -$12B, IVV -$4.5B, QQQ -$4B) pour aller vers les emergents (IEMG +$5.6B, EEM +$2.9B), l’international (VXUS +$7.6B), l’equal-weight (RSP +$2.9B) et les value/commodities. Le bond bid reste solide (+$34B), confirme un positionnement defensif en parallele du risk-on equity.

Crypto en capitulation: BTC et ETH ETFs en hemorragie (IBIT -$1.7B, FBTC -$1B, ETHA -$907M) avec RSI ~33 — zone de survente extreme. Le Tresor US avait attribue les swings recents des metaux precieux aux traders chinois.

Top Flows — Inflows & Outflows

Top 15 Inflows (4 semaines)

Ticker	4W Flow	YTD Flow	1M Return	Category	Signal
VOO	+$9,960M	+$26,010M	-0.8%	Large Cap	SPY-to-VOO rotation continue
VXUS	+$7,644M	+$8,873M	+4.9%	Foreign Large Cap	CONVICTION
IEMG	+$5,585M	+$10,537M	+5.9%	Emerging Markets	CONVICTION
VTI	+$4,986M	+$7,886M	-0.9%	Total Market	Passive rebalance
EEM	+$2,878M	+$4,273M	+5.7%	Emerging Markets	CONVICTION
RSP	+$2,863M	+$6,871M	+2.3%	S&P Equal Weight	Away from mega-caps
XLE	+$2,772M	+$3,845M	+14.9%	Energy	CONVICTION
IGV	+$2,048M	+$1,343M	-16.6%	Software	ACCUMULATION
GLDM	+$1,608M	+$2,285M	+8.8%	Gold	CONVICTION
GDX	+$1,584M	+$2,403M	+5.5%	Gold Miners	CONVICTION
SMH	+$1,548M	+$2,180M	+3.0%	Semiconductors	CONVICTION
EWY	+$1,435M	+$2,108M	+18.4%	Korea	CONVICTION
COPX	+$1,267M	+$1,855M	+7.3%	Copper Miners	CONVICTION

Top 15 Outflows (4 semaines)

Ticker	4W Flow	YTD Flow	1M Return	Category	Signal
SPY	-$11,865M	-$16,203M	-0.8%	Large Cap	SPY→VOO switch
IVV	-$4,529M	-$10,274M	-0.8%	Large Cap	SPY→VOO switch
QQQ	-$4,037M	-$6,986M	-2.5%	Nasdaq Growth	DISTRIBUTION
TLT	-$2,401M	-$3,683M	+2.4%	Long Bonds	DISTRIBUTION
XLK	-$2,263M	-$2,117M	-3.2%	Tech	Rotation away from tech
IBIT	-$1,652M	-$418M	-30.8%	Bitcoin	Crypto capitulation
IWD	-$1,576M	-$4,629M	+2.4%	Value	DISTRIBUTION
SOXL	-$1,540M	-$5,899M	+9.1%	Leveraged Semis	DISTRIBUTION
GLD	-$1,421M	+$902M	+8.8%	Gold	PROFIT TAKING
FBTC	-$1,048M	-$1,108M	-30.7%	Bitcoin	Crypto capitulation
HYG	-$1,064M	-$2,510M	+0.3%	High Yield	Credit risk reduction

Divergences Prix/Flux

Distribution (Price UP + Outflows) — Smart Money Sells

Ticker	1M Return	4W Flow	Category
SOXL	+9.1%	-$1,540M	Leveraged Semis DIST
GLD	+8.8%	-$1,421M	Gold PROFIT TAKING
FXU	+5.8%	-$1,018M	Utilities
TMF	+6.1%	-$641M	Leveraged Bonds
XLU	+5.1%	-$291M	Utilities
GDXJ	+4.7%	-$277M	Junior Gold Miners
XLP	+7.2%	-$253M	Consumer Staples

Accumulation (Price DOWN + Inflows) — Smart Money Buys

Ticker	1M Return	4W Flow	Category
IGV	-16.6%	+$2,048M	Software ACCUM
QQQM	-2.5%	+$1,410M	Nasdaq (low-cost) ACCUM
VUG	-4.7%	+$1,171M	Growth ACCUM
XLF	-3.4%	+$935M	Financials ACCUM
AGQ	-45.1%	+$761M	Silver 2x Leveraged ACCUM
URA	-2.6%	+$535M	Uranium ACCUM
SLV	-13.5%	+$432M	Silver ACCUM

Signal cle: L’accumulation sur IGV (-16.6% + $2B inflows), URA (-2.6% + $535M) et SLV (-13.5% + $432M) montre que les institutionnels achetent la faiblesse sur ces themes. AGQ (+$761M malgre -45%) confirme le bid agressif sur le silver.

Conviction Buying (Price UP + Strong Inflows)

Ticker	1M Return	4W Flow	Category
VXUS	+4.9%	+$7,644M	International
IEMG	+5.9%	+$5,585M	Emerging Markets
XLE	+14.9%	+$2,772M	Energy
GLDM	+8.8%	+$1,608M	Gold
GDX	+5.5%	+$1,584M	Gold Miners
SMH	+3.0%	+$1,548M	Semiconductors
EWY	+18.4%	+$1,435M	Korea
COPX	+7.3%	+$1,267M	Copper Miners

Rotation Sectorielle

Top Secteurs (4W flows)

Secteur	4W Flow	YTD Flow	1M Avg Ret	ETFs
Emerging Markets	+$15,472M	+$23,930M	+5.9%	52
Foreign Large Cap	+$15,249M	+$21,683M	+5.1%	79
Large Cap Blend	+$12,081M	+$23,318M	+1.6%	121
Large Cap Value	+$5,995M	+$6,644M	+4.7%	32
Materials (GDX, COPX…)	+$4,723M	+$6,768M	+5.5%	22
Energy	+$3,747M	+$5,415M	+14.7%	18
Industrials	+$3,237M	+$6,226M	+1.8%	19
Asia Pacific	+$2,358M	+$3,226M	+5.0%	32
Latin America	+$1,894M	+$2,601M	+10.4%	6
Alternative Energy	+$1,848M	+$2,431M	+5.0%	13
Commodity Producers	+$1,175M	+$1,646M	+6.5%	10

Bottom Secteurs

Secteur	4W Flow	YTD Flow	1M Avg Ret
Leveraged Equities	-$2,372M	-$7,191M	-6.1%
Utilities	-$1,060M	-$748M	+6.4%
Consumer Discretionary	-$773M	-$1,581M	-3.1%
China	-$266M	+$48M	-1.2%
Small Cap Growth	-$214M	-$2,057M	+0.7%
Large Cap Growth	+$651M	+$12,897M	-1.5%

Rotation dominante: EM > International > Value/Materials/Energy > Large Cap Blend >> Large Cap Growth > Tech. Les Large Cap Growth ne collectent que +$651M sur 4W malgre $13B YTD — fort ralentissement. Les EM sont la destination #1 depuis 4 semaines. Korea +18.4% en 1 mois avec $1.4B d’inflows = momentum exceptionnel (FLXK beneficie).

Commodities Deep Dive

Ticker	4W Flow	1M Return	AUM	Theme	Signal
GLDM	+$1,608M	+8.8%	$31.9B	Gold	CONV
IAU	+$1,204M	+8.8%	$80.3B	Gold	CONV
AGQ	+$761M	-45.1%	$2.3B	Silver 2x	ACCUM
SLV	+$432M	-13.5%	$39.3B	Silver	ACCUM
CPER	+$336M	-1.0%	$0.9B	Copper	ACCUM
GDX	+$1,584M	+5.5%	N/A	Gold Miners	CONV
COPX	+$1,267M	+7.3%	N/A	Copper Miners	CONV
URA	+$535M	-2.6%	N/A	Uranium	ACCUM
PPLT	+$82M	-9.6%	$2.9B	Platinum	Early accumulation
REMX	+$371M	+2.5%	N/A	Rare Earths	ACCUM
SILJ	+$430M	-0.2%	N/A	Silver Miners	ACCUM

Gold divergence: GLD en outflow (-$1.4B) pendant que GLDM (+$1.6B), IAU (+$1.2B) et GDX (+$1.6B) collectent massivement. C’est un GLD→GLDM/IAU switch (TER plus bas), PAS une vente d’or. L’exposition gold aggregee augmente.

Silver signal: Malgre le crash de -13.5% sur 1 mois, SLV collecte +$432M, AGQ +$761M, SILJ +$430M, SIL +$322M = $1.9B de conviction buying sur le silver en 4 semaines. Les institutionnels achetent la correction. Confirme le maintien de l’exposition silver (SSLV, PAAS).

Watchlist Portfolio

Precious Metals

Ticker	4W Flow	1W Flow	1M Ret	RSI	Signal
GDX	+$1,584M	+$216M	+5.5%	55.1	Conviction — ton GDX.L beneficie
IAU	+$1,204M	-$53M	+8.8%	55.4	Gold bid intact (switch depuis GLD)
SLV	+$432M	-$54M	-13.5%	47.9	Accumulation post-crash
SILJ	+$430M	-$61M	-0.2%	52.6	Silver miners bid
PPLT	+$82M	$0	-9.6%	47.3	Stealth — entry zone $150-170 toujours valide
GDXJ	-$277M	-$153M	+4.7%	53.8	Distribution juniors

Uranium & Copper

Ticker	4W Flow	1W Flow	1M Ret	RSI	Signal
COPX	+$1,267M	-$57M	+7.3%	55.6	Conviction — valide COPX, FCX, COPA
URA	+$535M	+$60M	-2.6%	52.1	Accumulation — valide CCJ, URNM
URNM	+$143M	+$18M	+2.5%	53.6	Confirmation uranium bid
CPER	+$336M	-$2M	-1.0%	50.0	Copper physical accumulation
REMX	+$371M	-$8M	+2.5%	56.1	Rare earths — watchlist entry $85

Semis & Tech

Ticker	4W Flow	1W Flow	1M Ret	RSI	Signal
SMH	+$1,548M	+$1,722M	+3.0%	58.9	Semis conviction — 1W acceleration massive
SOXX	+$1,016M	+$651M	+4.5%	59.8	Confirme le bid semi
SOXL	-$1,540M	-$1,397M	+9.1%	57.9	Leveraged exit, non-leveraged accumule

Biotech & Defense

Ticker	4W Flow	1W Flow	1M Ret	RSI	Signal
XBI	+$422M	+$955M	+1.1%	52.6	Acceleration massive 1W — M&A bid?
IBB	-$250M	-$45M	+2.8%	54.4	Distribution — small caps preferred
ITA	+$542M	+$152M	-1.4%	60.9	Defense accumulation

Emerging Markets & Korea

Ticker	4W Flow	1W Flow	1M Ret	RSI	Signal
IEMG	+$5,585M	+$1,123M	+5.9%	65.4	Massive EM rotation
EWY	+$1,435M	+$500M	+18.4%	70.5	Korea on fire — valide FLXK
EWZ	+$813M	+$8M	+14.7%	62.6	Brazil momentum
KWEB	-$288M	-$368M	-7.9%	37.8	China tech en capitulation

Crypto

Ticker	4W Flow	1W Flow	1M Ret	RSI	Signal
IBIT	-$1,652M	+$164M	-30.8%	33.6	Oversold — 1W reversal?
FBTC	-$1,048M	-$8M	-30.7%	33.6	Oversold
ETHA	-$907M	-$120M	-41.2%	33.3	ETH capitulation

RSI Extremes

Overbought (RSI > 70): Principalement des money market/T-bills (SGOV 100, BIL 99.9) — pas actionnable. EWY a 70.5 est le seul equity overbought notable.

Oversold (RSI < 35): Crypto domine (IBIT/FBTC/ETHA ~33). IGV (software) a 32.5 avec +$2B d’accumulation = signal d’accumulation tres fort. KWEB (China tech) a 37.8, CLOU (cloud) a 37.5.

Flow Acceleration (1W vs 4W avg)

Accelerating Inflows — Momentum Change

Ticker	1W Flow	4W Avg/Week	Acceleration	Category
DIA	+$1,528M	+$116M	+$1,412M	Dow Jones — massive rotation value
SMH	+$1,722M	+$387M	+$1,335M	Semis — pre-NVDA earnings?
IWM	+$705M	-$188M	+$893M	Small caps reversal
XBI	+$955M	+$105M	+$849M	Biotech acceleration massive
XLP	+$755M	-$63M	+$818M	Consumer Staples reversal
IBIT	+$164M	-$413M	+$577M	Bitcoin reversal naissant?

Accelerating Outflows — Danger

Ticker	1W Flow	4W Avg/Week	Acceleration	Category
QQQ	-$4,871M	-$1,009M	-$3,862M	Nasdaq — acceleration des sorties!
IVV	-$2,468M	-$1,132M	-$1,336M	S&P 500 iShares
SOXL	-$1,397M	-$385M	-$1,012M	Leveraged Semis — capitulation
COPX	-$57M	+$317M	-$374M	Copper miners — 1W pause
XLK	-$927M	-$566M	-$361M	Tech — acceleration sortie

QQQ acceleration critique: -$4.9B en 1 semaine vs -$1B/semaine en moyenne sur 4W. L’hemorragie tech accelere. SMH (+$1.3B d’acceleration) confirme que le bid semi est dissocie du Nasdaq broad — bon signe pour tes positions TSM/NVDA/MU/LRCX.

Takeaways & Implications Portfolio

1. TA THESE COMMODITIES SUPERCYCLE EST VALIDEE PAR LES FLUX
Gold (GLDM +$1.6B, IAU +$1.2B, GDX +$1.6B), Silver (SLV +$432M, AGQ +$761M, SILJ +$430M), Copper (COPX +$1.3B, CPER +$336M), Uranium (URA +$535M, URNM +$143M) — tout est en accumulation ou conviction buying. Les institutionnels renforcent exactement tes themes.

2. SILVER POST-CRASH = ACCUMULATION, PAS CAPITULATION
$1.9B de flows positifs malgre -13.5% en 1 mois. Le smart money achete la correction. Confirme le maintien de SSLV et le scaling PAAS. 3SIL reste un probleme de vehicule (leveraged decay), pas de these.

3. SEMIS: DISSOCIATION NASDAQ/SEMIS
QQQ accelere en sortie (-$3.9B d’acceleration), mais SMH accelere en entree (+$1.3B). Le marche fait la difference entre « tech broad » (en vente) et « semis/AI infra » (en accumulation). Bon signe avant NVDA earnings 26 fev. SOXX +$1B confirme.

4. KOREA = BEST PERFORMER GLOBAL
EWY +18.4% en 1 mois avec $1.4B d’inflows, RSI 70.5. Ton FLXK (Franklin FTSE Korea) beneficie directement de cette rotation. Attention au RSI overbought — garder mais ne pas renforcer.

5. XBI ACCELERATION: WATCHLIST BIOTECH
+$955M en 1 semaine vs +$105M/semaine en moyenne = acceleration 9x. Signal M&A? Tes niveaux d’entree XBI $110-115 restent valides mais le momentum des flows s’accelere.

6. COPX 1W PAUSE
COPX passe de +$317M/semaine a -$57M cette semaine. Pause temporaire, pas reversal (4W toujours a +$1.3B). A surveiller la semaine prochaine pour confirmer.

7. CRYPTO EN ZONE DE CAPITULATION
IBIT/FBTC/ETHA en RSI 33 avec des outflows massifs mais un debut de reversal sur IBIT 1W (+$164M vs -$413M/sem avg). Si tu n’es pas positionne, pas de raison d’entrer. Si positionne, c’est une zone de capitulation classique.

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